Sick Situation : Hand Analysis

I had the following situation a couple of weeks ago:

Quite expensive live tournament, 40 entrants, 7 in the money, around 15 players left. My stack is 4200, which is less than average (avg. around 7000) and the blinds have recently gone up to 400/800.

I receive a crappy A5o from button+2, see that everyone has folded to me and make it 2500 to steal the blinds (the table is mostly weak/tight and I have a pretty tight image) - however, the dealer points to the UTG player who has moved all-in for 3900 chips, without me noticing it - thus I either fold my hand and give up the 2500 that I have already put in the middle, or call for an additional 1400. In most of the situations it would be a rather easy call - 6400 in the middle, 1400 to call and around two big blinds left if I fold - but the problem here is that the UTG player has been showing a VERY tight play for the whole tournament, playing only big pocket pairs and only when having a position. Considering that he moved in from UTG this time, I am fairly sure to find either AA or KK (perhaps QQ/AK) from there, and I start doubting if I maybe should fold and gamble my remaining 1700 chips on one of the following hands.

What's your play?

janark wrote:I had the following situation a couple of weeks ago:

Quite expensive live tournament, 40 entrants, 7 in the money, around 15 players left. My stack is 4200, which is less than average (avg. around 7000) and the blinds have recently gone up to 400/800.

I receive a crappy A5o from button+2, see that everyone has folded to me and make it 2500 to steal the blinds (the table is mostly weak/tight and I have a pretty tight image) - however, the dealer points to the UTG player who has moved all-in for 3900 chips, without me noticing it - thus I either fold my hand and give up the 2500 that I have already put in the middle, or call for an additional 1400. In most of the situations it would be a rather easy call - 6400 in the middle, 1400 to call and around two big blinds left if I fold - but the problem here is that the UTG player has been showing a VERY tight play for the whole tournament, playing only big pocket pairs and only when having a position. Considering that he moved in from UTG this time, I am fairly sure to find either AA or KK (perhaps QQ/AK) from there, and I start doubting if I maybe should fold and gamble my remaining 1700 chips on one of the following hands.

What's your play?

Very interesting situation I'd might say... Yes, he might have a good hand but it doesn't necessarily mean AA or KK. The problem with your hand is the very small kicker which would mean that he's way ahead of you if one of his cards is an Ace. But, he might have just some speculative card like KQ suited or a middle pair. And I'm not sure about your table image at that point, but he might see that you're trying to steal the blinds since you didn't move all in right away.

Basically, there is too much in the pot at this point and your 1400 chips that would be left if you fold might not be enough to play later. Basically, I'd gamble at this point and would call. Probably, you're the underdog at this point but I can't see another way out of this situation. Just to hope that he has a pocket pair (not the AA ) and look for your 3 outs

rimvis wrote:And I'm not sure about your table image at that point, but he might see that you're trying to steal the blinds since you didn't move all in right away.

He wasn't able to see anything as he moved all-in before I had acted. It was me not noticing that he was in the pot, otherwise I would've folded my hand immediately.

But thanks for the reply.

janark wrote:He wasn't able to see anything as he moved all-in before I had acted. It was me not noticing that he was in the pot, otherwise I would've folded my hand immediately.

But thanks for the reply.

Basically, i missread some of the post and missunderstood Olympic rules
Anyway, the last part of the analysis stays the same, and I'd make the call with that much in the pot already.

janark wrote:I had the following situation a couple of weeks ago:

Quite expensive live tournament, 40 entrants, 7 in the money, around 15 players left. My stack is 4200, which is less than average (avg. around 7000) and the blinds have recently gone up to 400/800.

I receive a crappy A5o from button+2, see that everyone has folded to me and make it 2500 to steal the blinds (the table is mostly weak/tight and I have a pretty tight image) - however, the dealer points to the UTG player who has moved all-in for 3900 chips, without me noticing it - thus I either fold my hand and give up the 2500 that I have already put in the middle, or call for an additional 1400. In most of the situations it would be a rather easy call - 6400 in the middle, 1400 to call and around two big blinds left if I fold - but the problem here is that the UTG player has been showing a VERY tight play for the whole tournament, playing only big pocket pairs and only when having a position. Considering that he moved in from UTG this time, I am fairly sure to find either AA or KK (perhaps QQ/AK) from there, and I start doubting if I maybe should fold and gamble my remaining 1700 chips on one of the following hands.

What's your play?

How he has played big pocket pairs , AK- in previous hands? how much BB he raised proflop ?
From first sight its a steal for me. U would like to have a caller(s) with hands like this. He would made a min raise or flat call hoping for raise/reraise with big pocket pair.
With 5 BB left u're playing short stack strategy imo , there is no point to rise 3-4BB, so with middle pairs or A5+ he goes all in. Imo he's holding 88- or A5+.
I would call here. Painful lesson to be more attentive next time. If u fold - few BB left and blinds are coming (in this case u would go all in with more trasher hands than A5o) in few hands and u're pot committed.
If u'll win coin flip - u have nice chance to reach ITM.

yofana wrote:How he has played big pocket pairs , AK- in previous hands? how much BB he raised proflop ?

Doesn't matter - the guy had less than 5BB left so he couldn't do much more than push. Calling or raising less would've been nonsense.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->From first sight its a steal for me. U would like to have a caller(s) with hands like this. He would made a min raise or flat call hoping for raise/reraise with big pocket pair.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Steal by an ULTRA TIGHT (see my post before) short stack from UTG? I don't think so
(also, villain+1 was quite a maniac with a rather huge stack so I'm pretty sure that the villain wouldn't try to steal when this guy is yet to act.)

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->With 5 BB left u're playing short stack strategy imo , there is no point to rise 3-4BB, so with middle pairs or A5+ he goes all in. Imo he's holding 88- or A5+.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not sure if you were referring to me or him (we both had around 5BB left) - if you were referring to me then I assure you that my raise would've been more than correct if the UTG hadn't moved in before me. There were four rather tight players after me and as I mentioned in my last post, my image was rather tight, too. The blinds are too high not to try and steal in any occasion, and the spot would've been perfectly picked. It was just my blindness (not noticing UTG-s action) that killed me.

[quote]
I would call here. Painful lesson to be more attentive next time. If u fold - few BB left and blinds are coming (in this case u would go all in with more trasher hands than A5o) in few hands and u're pot committed.
If u'll win coin flip - u have nice chance to reach ITM.

janark wrote:Doesn't matter - the guy had less than 5BB left so he couldn't do much more than push. Calling or raising less would've been nonsense.
Steal by an ULTRA TIGHT (see my post before) short stack from UTG? I don't think so
(also, villain+1 was quite a maniac with a rather huge stack so I'm pretty sure that the villain wouldn't try to steal when this guy is yet to act.)

Does it mean that UT will choose better be blinded off instead of calling or rising with trash?
From my experience in live Olimpic tourneys (well it was low bay ins, not that expensive like yours) UT and TAG players in second phase of tourney usually changing gear to LAG and using their tight image. If u’re UT or TAG and everybody noticed it….. u don’t get a lot of action with your all in (maybe except big stack). So I think he’s rising with a trash.
I wouldn’t call UT allin in UTG and folded easy my hand. But in your case….. I would call. To stay with 2BB when blinds are coming in few hands and u’re pot committed? No. Its a painful lesson to be more attentive next time.

janark wrote:Doesn't matter - the guy had less than 5BB left so he couldn't do much more than push. Calling or raising less would've been nonsense.

Actually u had ~ 5BB and raised 3BB. nonsense? :huh:

How come you don't notice an all in ? Just amazing .

It's an odd situation , you are probably beat here , but I would call down either way . Playing with slightly over 2BB doesn't give you high chances either .

I'd call.

What u did? And what happened?