Fold Call Or Raise? : Hand Analysis

Seat 1: MP ($183.50 in chips)
Seat 2: MP($491.98 in chips)
Seat 3: LP ($208.79 in chips)
Seat 4: LP ($468 in chips)
Seat 5: LP ($593.75 in chips)
Seat 6: SB ($1505.50 in chips)
Seat 7: BB ($226.75 in chips)
Seat 8: UTG ($342.25 in chips)
Seat 9: Hero ($539.75 in chips)
Seat 10: EP ($493 in chips)
SB: posts small blind $2
BB: posts big blind $5
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [Qc] [Qh]
UTG: folds
Hero: raises to $25
EP: folds
MP: folds
MP: folds
LP: folds
LP: folds
LP: folds
SB: calls $23
BB: calls $20
----- FLOP ----- [2d] [4h] [2c]
SB: checks
BB: checks
Hero: bets $72
SB: calls $72
BB: folds
----- TURN ----- [2d] [4h] [2c] [5d]
SB: checks
Hero: checks
----- RIVER ----- [2d] [4h] [2c] [5d] [Td]
SB: bets $177
Hero????

whats your thoughts on what SB has?
would u fold call or raise here?

Not a lot of read on SB, saw just few re raises be4 the flop.

Just look at SB stack.He have 300BB!That show that he is experience player and know what hands he play.Anyway, he maybe think that you have something like AK,AQs and missed,so he could have JJ,AK [undecided] and tried to steal a pot but also he could have AA,KK and just slow played.Nothing more I can say, because there is none reads of your opponent.

just fold

Cru3LL wrote:Just look at SB stack.He have 300BB!That show that he is experience player and know what hands he play.Anyway, he maybe think that you have something like AK,AQs and missed,so he could have JJ,AK [undecided] and tried to steal a pot but also he could have AA,KK and just slow played.Nothing more I can say, because there is none reads of your opponent.

I know... he has three times the buy-in, he's a half decent player. I was playing pretty tight and raised big UTG+1,so he knows I have at minimum AQs here.
After flop: he's check-called a bet where odds are 2/1.
After turn: checked... he can't be drawing to a flush. That would just be bad play on the flop (if we take in mind that he's good player). This card didn't help him.
River: He makes a pot size bet. He's either on a stone cold bluff or he has had me beat since the flop and wants me to think he's bluffing.

yofana wrote:I know... he has three times the buy-in, he's a half decent player. I was playing pretty tight and raised big UTG+1,so he knows I have at minimum AQs here.
After flop: he's check-called a bet where odds are 2/1.
After turn: checked... he can't be drawing to a flush. That would just be bad play on the flop (if we take in mind that he's good player). This card didn't help him.
River: He makes a pot size bet. He's either on a stone cold bluff or he has had me beat since the flop and wants me to think he's bluffing.

i think you made a very big mistake after you checked the turn. You came up firing after the flop which was a representation of your strong hand before the flop. And there was nothing that should scare you off after the turn card but you suddenly checked it which shows your weakness. In your opponent's place, I'd put you on some monster like AK or AQ and it means that you totally missed the flop. Therefore, as your opponent I would do the same as he did and would go out firing at you after the river which a big enough bet to scare you off.

Biggest mistake - check after the river and now it's a risky decision. Anyway, I would make the call as I look at it now, but I'm not sure if I would make the same call if my own money were on the line.

p_james wrote:i think you made a very big mistake after you checked the turn. You came up firing after the flop which was a representation of your strong hand before the flop. And there was nothing that should scare you off after the turn card but you suddenly checked it which shows your weakness. In your opponent's place, I'd put you on some monster like AK or AQ and it means that you totally missed the flop. Therefore, as your opponent I would do the same as he did and would go out firing at you after the river which a big enough bet to scare you off.

Biggest mistake - check after the river and now it's a risky decision. Anyway, I would make the call as I look at it now, but I'm not sure if I would make the same call if my own money were on the line.

Fair enough p_james, cheers for your comment.

Once he calls on the flop being a decent player he can only have JJ TT,4s full or a 2 (I disregard quads as its extremely rare to see this, with QQ,KK,AA he would played in other way in preflop or after flop). A2s or A3s is less so but not impossible (he's decent and tight, he's not going to call in such bad position with A small, suited or not). There’s no draw there and he has to know I have a hand so I doubt he is calling to bluff me later. To be fair it is possible he has a lower pair as well and puts me on AK. I checked the turn as I either have him crushed and drawing to 2 outs or vice versa (and I don’t want to lose him if I have him beat). If he checked on the river I could well have value bet again however when he bets I should reevaluate instead of calling so quickly. He’s unlikely to bet JJ or a smaller pair I feel (he checks these and hopes he caught AK bluffing).

So what was Hero's play?

I'd fold in this situation

I think fold

Of course fold, somebody could hold three of a kind, KK, AA, or A-5 Straight, Oooor flush.

I think you needed to raise.

catchKISS wrote:So what was Hero's play?

I wrote it in last post. I called.
Well you all did pretty good (and better than me in many cases).I called in the heat of the moment and lost. He had quad 2s
Analyzing it afterwards (something I always like to do with all my hands) I can see a fold is definitely possible.

OutCOME wrote:Of course fold, somebody could hold three of a kind, KK, AA, or A-5 Straight, Oooor flush.

if u got AA or KK and u see 5BB raise preflop in front of u... would u flat call or reraise? Call 5BB raise from utg out of position with weak ace? I dunno.... imho its bad play.