Euroleague Picks : Basketball Betting

I think it's time to start our Euroleague betting picks section since I'm getting back to betting after a long period of time.

My today's pick:


Montepaschi Siena (ITA) - Zalgiris Kaunas (LTU)
11/7/2007 9:30 PM

Take Zalgiris Kaunas with Handicap (+14,5)

1.90@bwin

Looks like a pretty safe pick. Zalgiris showed a decent play in the first game and lost of improvement in the second. With a handicap of +14,5 Zalgiris looks pretty safe. I'd even say that Zalgiris has a chance to win with Beard out which will mean less frustration for other players, but that's a bit of risky.

LeMans - Lietuvos Rytas
under150

Olimpija - CSKA
HalfTime CSKA handicap (-5)

Taken from betonbasket.com

Union Olimpija Ljubljana - CSKA Moscow

Two teams coming off big Week 2 wins square off on Wednesday in Group A when Union Olimpija hosts CSKA Moscow in the Slovenian capital of Ljubljana. Olimpija reinforced its reputation as a giant killer – especially at home – when it dumped Olympiacos 87-78 last week. This game could be a true test for Olimpija, to see if the club can become a force – at least at home – and challenge for the Top 16. One of the more interesting head-to-head matchups worth keeping an eye on pits Dragic against J.R. Holden and Papaloukas. Also, Olimpija's 2.20-meter center Begic will face Alexey Savrasenko, while the explosive Milic and hard-working Zupan test themselves against Smodis, Marcus Goree and David Andersen. Rarely will CSKA not be a favorite when it takes the floor this season and that will be the case this week, but CSKA also cannot make the mistake of underestimating Olimpija, as so many teams have paid for doing in the past.



CSKA have full roster available for this match and honestly speaking I don't see any chances for Olimpija to compete against CSKA rival. Moscow team have advantage in all basketball game aspects and only character could help Olimpija to lose with respectable margin. Their game built around Milic, Taylor, Hukic and Dragic and CSKA will simply destroy their game by defending against these players. Also slovenian team have big problems in offense this year and it would be extremely difficult for them to score 70 points into CSKA basket today against Moscow team defense. When deal will come into bench players I see clear advantage for CSKA where such players as Papaloukas, Goree, Siskauskas comes from the bench..

I predict one-sided game here because of many factors. CSKA should be capable of building 15 points advantage early in the game and than they will try to hold it until end. I would not be surprised to see 20+ pts win for CSKA here. But it is always risky to play such handicaps in away matches especially on such hot arena as Union Olimpija have so medium-low stakes are adviced.

Expected score: Olimpija 64 - 79 CSKA

Pick: CSKA -11 @ 1.90 3/10 PinnacleSports

MontepaschiVS Zalgiris

Montepaschi vs Zalgiris

156.5 total line is not right in my opinion. Zalgiris is not a team which can stop Montepaschi superb offense in away match and lithuanians also can't force italians to play low tempo game like CSKA did last week. More fair line according to my estimation should 86.5-72.5 (159 in total) and even looking at this line over looks good because both temps have long and productive bench with many players able to score points while starters sitting on the bench.

Zalgiris will miss Beard today but that should be not a problem because Tanoka is looking terrible this season (too old.. to play on high level). Zalgiris scored 74 points in all season games so far and even tough Montepaschi defense should not stop them in offense. I expekt Zalgiris to lose this game by 12-17 points today because this team with this coach can't play against top Euroleague teams even with quite good roster.

Expected score: Montepaschi 89 - 74 Zalgiris

Pick: Over 156.5 @ 1.90 5/10 Gamebookers


Brose Baskets VS Real Madrid
Brose Baskets Bamberg - Real Madrid


Both teams tend to positional basketball, and most importantl that is such basketball they show their best qualities. Therefore don't expect from Madrid to play fast basketball (which they also know how to play). Rather Real will accept Brose style and will try to win by using their physical superiority (well, the Germans have no such power as Spaniards) and a long bench. It is noteworthy that both teams have significant losses: from the Brose Okulaja is highly doubtful, and for Real Bullock and Hamilton are out. In away games Real often play from defense and in such games they rarely allow more than 66-67 points. Till now Brose did not allow anyone including Panathinaikos to score over 70 points into their basket so it's really worth to expect defensive game today because both teams tending not to allow 70 points.

My line for this game would be 66-72,5 that at 6 points below the bookies line. So my advice would to try under for this match. Bet365.com is slow as always about moving their line down to 141.5-142.5 and that's why enjoy having account there (Read bet365.com review to know more)

Expected score: Brose Baskets 64 - 73 Real Madrid

Pick: Under 143.5 @ 1.83 4/10 Bet365.com

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Partizan VS Panathinaikos

Partizan vs Panathinaikos
Partizan is looking really well these days. They have 2-0 ATS record in Euroleague and now they will play against strong PAO at home. Good chance for young players to show their character and talent to scouts. These teams playing every year and always PAO have difficult life at Pioneer arena. The same life is expected today because these days PAO is looking very overstimated by bookies in every match. PAO should yet to find their game especially in offense where they usually fails to score 80 points and lack of team chemistry is also visible. This could cause many problems for PAO today in Belgrade but talking about winner it's still risky to play against greeks. Class & experience is still with them while Partizan could stop playing well when it's needed. So handicap and money line bets are very risky no matter what you want to bet. Classical bookies game.

But in over/under line I see some advantage over the line. Both teams played many high-scoring games so far but most of those game went over because of super-high-scoring 4th quarters. Also Partizan is not so crazy on 3-point line like they were last year and looking good in defense usually not allowing opponents to score over 78-80 points. The same is about PAO they looking well in defense but offense struggles often at least now.

I my opinion 72.5-78 is more fair total line than 76-81.5 like bookies set so it's worth to back under 156.5 with medium-low stakes.


Expected score: Partizan 73 - 76 Panathinaikos

Pick: Under 156.5 @ 1.90 3/10 Gamebookers


Le Mans VS Lietuvos Rytas
Le Mans Sarthe Basket - Lietuvos Rytas Vilnius

Today Rytas have important away game because if you want to have easy life in a group you must win at least 2-3 away games and win 80% of home matches.. Lemans is not stronger than Rytas but is motivated for sure because this is their last chance. But French teams always play bad in such important games and also I think that it would be a difficult life for Lemans in offense because Rytas is good in defense especially near their basket with very physical front line: Nielsen, Petravicius & Batista (also Anisimovas is there but he is not ready for EL games)..

I expect tough game with winner decided in the end and as for me Rytas have better chances to win this game in the end because of their winning mentality and better conditions. Also would not be suprised to see Rytas dominating again over French team like they did last year against Nancy in ULEB Cup. Rytas knows how to play against French teams but taking into consideration that Rytas already have 2 wins and Lemans have zero this could be really difficult game.

1.65 odds on Rytas to win don't represent value because this is a fair line but during in-play I think it's worth to back Rytas with odds over 2.0. You must have account at Bet365.com or Bwin to be able to bet during whole game to bet on this match.

Expected score: Le Mans 72 - 75 Lietuvos Rytas

Lean: Rytas to win

rimvis wrote:I think it's time to start our Euroleague betting picks section since I'm getting back to betting after a long period of time.

My today's pick:
Montepaschi Siena (ITA) - Zalgiris Kaunas (LTU)
11/7/2007 9:30 PM

Take Zalgiris Kaunas with Handicap (+14,5)

1.90@bwin

Looks like a pretty safe pick. Zalgiris showed a decent play in the first game and lost of improvement in the second. With a handicap of +14,5 Zalgiris looks pretty safe. I'd even say that Zalgiris has a chance to win with Beard out which will mean less frustration for other players, but that's a bit of risky.

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Zalgiris Kaunas (LTU) - Montepaschi Siena (ITA)
64:89

Lietuvos Rytas - Efes Pilsen (-4.5) 1 @1.85 Orakulas 7/10

One of the best picks today.